Oscar Predictions: ‘La La Land’ or ‘Moonlight’?

The Oscars are back, and this time it’s personal. Well, sort of. After last year’s #oscarssowhite debacle, the Academy added a few folks to their line-up and decidedly wandered up and down the film circuit to bring a diverse set of nominees to the spotlight. While there were a few snubs (*cough* Amy Adams), for the most part this year they were on point. So as we eagerly await, or at the least quietly wonder about, the awards ceremony, let us speculate who will bring home the gold. Since we know you’ll be spending a predominant amount of time during the ceremony chatting with friends or flipping back and forth through channels, we’re going to go ahead and stick to the most anticipated awards.

Best Picture- La La Land

While I’m tempted to say Moonlight, drop the mic, and be done with these predictions, the truth is La La Land is more than likely taking this one home. Yes, it was a delightful romp into yesteryear delving deep into the dregs of how tough it is to “make it” and not fuck it up. But if we’re being honest, La La Land didn’t match up to the emotionally draining heavy hitters that were released this year. As cliché as it is, we all know Hollywood is in love with itself, so it should come as no surprise when the musical takes Best Picture.

Best Actor- Casey Affleck

Honestly, it should probably go to Denzel. Affleck is a mess of a human who can spill his emotional turmoil into his roles as part of his acting process. His performance was fantastic, and while Manchester By the Sea was heavily talked about throughout the year, it’s going to get overlooked for the most part.

Best Actress- Natalie Portman

So Ruth Negga could roll up on this one. I didn’t care for Loving, but the acting was superb. However, Portman’s visceral portrayal of American sweetheart Jackie O was literally a look into the raw power of grief. Portman was magnetic onscreen, creating a new standard for historical dramas. Everything from her mannerisms, to her vocal patterns matched that of the late first lady. It can’t be easy stepping into these perfectly shined and worn shoes, but she did it with a quintessential stride.

Best Supporting Actor- Mahershala Ali

This is where Moonlight will finally start to get its due. While Dev Patel is on the cusp of the Oscar, there was magic contained within Ali’s performance. Moonlight’s cast was so perfectly meshed together, and Ali’s portrayal of Juan cemented the fact that he belongs squarely within the Hollywood elite. It wasn’t an easy role to take on, but his hidden fragility matched his innate machismo personification of the father figure. As fucked as it is, he also has a good chance of taking it home due to his race. After last year’s bad press, the Academy will be intent on showing their all players are equal card. Good thing he deserves the award on his own merits.

Best Supporting Actress- Viola Davis

Hands down. Truthfully Davis should have been nominated for Best Actress, and the fact that she was pushed into Supporting is a travesty in itself. Fences deserves the acclaim, but unfortunately, it’s up against a wall of incredible art this year and will likely get drowned out. While I wouldn’t be mad if Michelle Williams walked with it, Davis’ performance was the most striking.

Best Director- Barry Jenkins

This is the year. Jenkins will be the first black man to take home the Oscar for Best Director. Moonlight will not get the acclaim it deserves, but this could be the historical moment that defines both the academy, and the indie film genre. Quietly powerful, and loudly versatile, the film captures the life of Chiron as he navigates the perpetual horrors of growing into all that he fears most. Jenkins’ vision is one of pure hope, fear, and darkness. If there was ever a time for the acutely raw emotion stemming from the film, it is now.

Foreign Language- A Man Called Ove

There’s always going to be issues from folks who spend their whole life complaining. Because of this, the Academy is going to start working harder to include everyone. That said, A Man Called Ove would be the safe choice for best Foreign Language this year. It’s been critically acclaimed all over the board, and it delves into ageism.

Animated Film- Kubo and the Two Strings

Kubo has a great chance of taking it this year. The gorgeous film should tremble the hands of the almighty Disney syndicate, but fortunately Disney has two films up for awards this year. Kubo might be a gamble, but between its fantastical story line and breathtaking animation, there’s a high possibility that it will take it.

Screenplay- Manchester By the Sea

Manchester could easily walk with Best Original Screenplay. Like Moonlight and Portman’s Jackie, it deals with a new level of emotion that’s normally reserved for wallowing and sobbing alone in the throes of one’s own twisted existence. It’s critical to note the importance of the film’s underbelly, and Screenplay is a perfect way of doing that.

Song- City of Stars