Critical Coin Toss: Placing Bets on the 86th Academy Awards

With “Critical Coin Toss,” two Glide writers lace up their boots and step into the critical arena, debating the pros and cons of a movie, album, TV show, or any other piece of pop-culture. 

On Sunday, March 2nd, Ellen Degeneres will host the 86th Academy Awards. It’s the movie industry’s biggest night, typically offering bad jokes, awkward moments, and a few surprises. Many categories this year don’t have a clear front-runner —  including Best Picture — which makes Oscar predictions a little trickier. Hopefully, it’ll also make the show more entertaining.

Before placing your Oscar bets, check out this conversation between Stephen Mills and Mark Pursell. They provide their take on the awards, debating who will win, who should win, and who should have been nominated in the first place. (Also, while you’re in the Oscar mood, check out John Keith and Brice Ezell’s Coin Toss piece about the merits of American Hustle.)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Barkhad Abdi, Captain Philips

Bradley Cooper, American Hustle

Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave

Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street

Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

STEPHEN MILLS: I don’t know about you, Mark, but this is the easiest category for me and seems to be one of the few sure things in this year’s awards. It seems unlikely that Jared Leto will lose this award. He’s been the front-runner from the beginning and hasn’t lost much momentum, even when some backlash against Dallas Buyers Club surfaced (backlash that was mostly nonsense, but I’ll get to that later). Leto’s performance as a transgender, HIV-infected drug user is perfect Oscar bait. The Oscars love gender-bending roles, and playing a dying trans-woman seems like a sure way to get a nomination and a statue. But to Leto’s credit, his performance isn’t over-the-top or cliché. In fact, it feels honest, raw, and even subtle at times, which is not a choice many actors would have made. This is why I think he will win and actually should win.

You’ll hear me say this again, but I hated The Wolf of Wall Street and therefore can’t imagine giving Jonah Hill an Oscar for it. I actually can’t believe Jonah Hill is a two-time Oscar nominee, can you? He’s fine in the film, but I don’t see this as a worthy performance. If I were voting strictly on sex appeal, I’d give Bradley Cooper a few Oscars and deliver them personally. He’s actually great in American Hustle, but it’s not enough of a standout role to overtake Leto. I like Fassbender, but I had some issues with 12 Years a Slave, and his performance is very one note. Plus, this film will be rewarded in other categories but not this one.

As for Barkhad Abdi, it would be a real surprise if he won, but a pleasant surprise. This was his first film ever, and he was pretty fantastic as the Somali pirate going head-to-head with Tom Hanks’ Capitan Phillips. In fact, I didn’t expect to like this movie, but his performance captivated me and made the film that much stronger.

But this is Leto’s year, and I’ll be shocked if he loses.

MARK PURSELL: I’m in agreement about Leto. He’s proven himself a capable actor in the past (Requiem for a Dream comes to mind), but his performance in Dallas Buyers Club is a pleasure to watch: It’s sensitive, funny, and furious, which is all the more impressive considering that the role could have been a cartoonish hash in the hands of the wrong actor. There’s also the complicated on-screen chemistry between Leto and McConaughey, another element that could have been one-dimensional but wasn’t, and I think Leto has to get some credit for that. It’s legitimately an Oscar-worthy performance.

That aside, it’s also really the only option compared to the other nominees. The Supporting Actor pool this year is, as you largely said above, unimaginative. The only other performance besides Leto’s that genuinely impressed me was Barkhad Abdi in Captain Phillips. Playing a ruthless pirate villain could have been a thankless job, but the filmmakers allowed Abdi the space to bring some texture to his character, and he rose to the challenge.

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I suppose you could get into a debate about what sort of acting is more worthy of recognition — Abdi, a relative unknown who answered a casting call, gives a naturalistic performance, whereas Leto’s is character work — but for me, Leto had the tougher challenge, so I lean towards him.

I’m confused about some of the other nominees. Jonah Hill has shown us that he’s capable of serious character work (Moneyball), but he and pretty much everyone else in The Wolf of Wall Street aren’t acting as much as they’re lopping off huge chunks of the scenery and chewing ‘til it bleeds (though the quaalude-fueled fight between Hill and DiCaprio somewhere in Wolf’s interminable third hour is pretty spectacular). Michael Fassbender didn’t really have much to do in 12 Years a Slave except look/be evil; this is largely due to the screenplay and thus not really Fassbender’s fault, but for an actor of his caliber, a role like this barely causes him to break a sweat, and it’s noticeable.

I did get a kick out of Bradley Cooper in American Hustle; he and Jennifer Lawrence essentially function as the film’s comic relief, and both rise admirably to the challenge. In the end, though, Cooper’s performance doesn’t quite land (which I personallly ascribe to both the messy structure of the movie and Lawrence’s flashier, brassier performance drawing more attention).

Some names I would have preferred to see on the supporting ballot instead: Matthew Goode (Stoker), James Franco (Spring Breakers), Jake Gyllenhaal (Prisoners), or even Matthew McConaughey himself as the titular figure in Jeff Nichols’s criminally-overlooked-and-underrated Mud.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine

Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave

Julia Roberts, August: Osage County

June Squibb, Nebraska

MP: Unlike its sibling race, Supporting Actress sports a solid field of noteworthy and deserving contenders. My only quibble would be with Sally Hawkins; she’s a formidable actress and is perfectly lovely in Blue Jasmine, but Nicole Kidman and Scarlett Johansson both deserved a nod this year (for Stoker and Her, respectively) and I would rather have seen one of them on the ballot in Hawkins’s place.

As stated above, I tend to favor character work over naturalism when it comes to awards season, but June Squibb’s unaffected performance is a delight to watch in Nebraska. Her crass, crackling Midwestern matriarch is surprisingly layered, and she deserves her nomination. The same goes for Lupita Nyong’o; the actress is effortlessly at ease in front of the camera, and her performance as Chiwetel Ejiofor’s ally Patsey in 12 Years a Slave is nothing short of searing. None of us will forget that whipping scene any time soon. However, besides that keynote scene, Nyong’o is mostly relegated to sullen stares and desperate whispers. Other supporting roles and performances this year offered more meat and complexity.

Which brings us to the uncomfortable question of Jennifer Lawrence. She is a force of nature who deserves her accolades, but even though it’s a lot of fun to watch her take on the “blowsy bimbo” job in American Hustle, it’s a freewheeling, melismatic performance played at top volume. This draws more attention to the fact that her character is basically unnecessary to the movie’s actual plot. David O. Russell would have been better served to rein Lawrence in just a fraction (or, better yet, to have mostly eliminated her character from the movie, but we’ll get to that later). She’s still basically the frontrunner, but there are other, more admirable choices.

That only leaves us Julia Roberts, but it’s hardly a matter of simple attrition. Roberts is a pop-culture archetype. Anyone with a working knowledge of contemporary film history knows her as America’s cinematic sweetheart, and she’s made an impressive career out of largely playing herself. That isn’t meant as an insult; being natural and charismatic in front of a movie camera isn’t easy or simple, but she also isn’t a Streep-style chameleon, and isn’t an actress you see perennially nominated.

This is probably what makes her career-highlight performance in August: Osage County even more surprising. Roberts doesn’t so much step into the character of exacting daughter Barbara as she appears consumed by it. She blazes through the film’s dramaturgically-complex scenes like a comet, projecting a hard, cold fury so intense it ranges from fascinating to frightening. It’s Erin Brockovich, turnt up. When, at the end of the movie’s centerpiece dinner battle, Roberts gets a centimeter from Meryl Streep’s aquiline nose and howls, “I’M RUNNING THINGS NOW!”, her Pyrrhic triumph reverberates in your belly, in your bones. If there’s any such thing as justice when it comes to awards shows, Roberts will depart the ceremony with a richly-deserved statuette.

SM: We might be some of the only people out there who think Julia Roberts deserves this award. I’m right there with you on that. Roberts absolutely blew me away in August: Osage County. As you mentioned, she’s the least Julia Roberts-y I’ve ever seen, and she really has the most challenging role in that film. We all knew Streep was going to be great and control every scene, but Roberts really proved herself a worthy opponent. The central conflict of the film is hers: Will she become her mother? Of course, I know she has no chance of winning, even if this is the performance that most deserves it. Roberts has been very selective in the last few years with roles, so I’m hoping we get to see more of this side of her in future films.

Best Supporting Actress is often a category that is used to reward the young and up-and-coming. It can sometimes be a surprise category, but it has often gone to someone that seems to be the “it girl” of the moment, which is why Lupita Nyong’o will win for 12 Years a Slave. She is the “it girl” and has been wowing people on the red carpet all season long. If there were an Oscar for best dressed, she’d have it hands down. As for her performance, it left we wanting, but I’m not sure that’s her fault. Her role isn’t very developed or complex. 12 Years a Slave is a fine film, but my trouble with it is that it didn’t bring anything new to this familiar story of slavery. It seems that we are supposed to love her performance for this whipping scene, which was horrible and moving to some degree, but was it good filmmaking or writing? Haven’t we seen this many times before? Regardless, I believe the film will be awarded, and this is the big category it will win.

As for the other front-runner, Jennifer Lawrence, I could see her stealing this one because her “it girl” status isn’t fading. She is very funny and captivating in American Hustle, but, as you said, it is acting at top volume, which is great fun, but is it award worthy? I don’t think so. Of course, people do love giving her awards so she can get up and speak, so there’s that.

BEST ACTOR

Christian Bale, American Hustle

Bruce Dern, Nebraska

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street

Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave

Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

SM: Let me start by saying I was pretty upset to see that Joaquin Phoenix didn’t get a nomination for Her. I thought it was one of the most deserving performances of the year. It’s challenging when your main co-star is only a voice, but he rose to the occasion and gave a performance that was sensitive and actually quite beautiful. But he wasn’t the only snub in this category — in fact, there were many worthy actors left off the short list, including Tom Hanks for Captain Philips and Robert Redford for All is Lost. But I guess I should talk about the people who actually got nominated.

Much like Leto, McConaughey has a big lead on these other men. He’s been collecting awards left and right for his performance as the HIV-infected, drug using, homophobic, macho cowboy in Dallas Buyers Club. McConaughey has somehow pulled off one of the greatest image changes in Hollywood history. It’s like he’s slowly snuck up on us, and suddenly in the last six months has proved himself to be one of the best actors around. He is no longer just a hunky romantic comedy guy, but a true talent. He’s been giving raw, dark performances all year long. Dallas Buyers Club was a perfect start, and now he’s blowing up the small screen in HBO’s mind-bending thriller True Detective. I expect to see him on award stages again for that series.

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His performance in Dallas Buyers Club is worthy of the attention. Yes, he lost lots of weight for the role and looks really sick in the film (another favorite of Oscar voters), but I was surprised how the film didn’t exploit that. We can tell how thin he is in on screen, but there weren’t any lingering shots or long shirtless moments, so we could all “ooo” and “ah” over how much he transformed for the role. His performance is not just a body change. He’s truly remarkable.

I mentioned some of the backlash against the film earlier, which for me didn’t make much sense. Some claim the film is homophobic and presents the straight man as a savior to the gay community. This seems to be a misinterpretation of the film. I liked that someone finally made a movie that shows a different side of the AIDS crisis. The film doesn’t focus mostly on the gay community, nor does it present McConaughey as a savoir. He’s starts his “buyers club” to help himself and to make money. He’s a pretty self-centered character throughout the whole film — yes, he ends up helping many gay people and be-friending Leto’s transgender character — but in my opinion, it’s not presented in a homophobic or problematic way. McConaughey is most likely going to win, and I’ll be pleased with that decision.

The other men this category are fighting an uphill battle. Ejiofor was a front-runner for a short time for his free-man-turned-captured-slave in 12 Years a Slave, but he’s lost a lot of steam. While he’s good in the film, the role isn’t quite juicy enough to take home the statue. Meanwhile, DiCaprio’s performance in The Wolf of Wall Street is far from award-worthy. The film is a giant mess with no real direction, which leaves DiCaprio with a less than stellar performance. He’s done much better work in other films, but to be honest, I really think DiCaprio, as a whole, is an overrated actor. To me he always looks like a kid playing dress-up.

Bale’s hair is worthy of a prop award, but while he’s strong in American Hustle, his performance is one of the least talked about from the film. That leaves Dern, who has had quite a team of people campaigning for him, including his famous daughter. In another year, Dern might easily be able to take home this statue. Voters do have a soft spot for rewarding older actors making late-career comebacks, but McConaughey has really stolen the spotlight.

MP: It may not be much fun for readers that you and I keep tending to agree with each other, but I’m also on Team McConaughey here. His performance isn’t effective purely because of his physical alteration: He fully inhabits Ron Woodruff with a flinty-eyed hunger that burns and intensifies even as his body wastes away. McConaughey is also in the enviable position of being somewhat due for Academy recognition. As you said, Stephen, he’s pulled off the neat trick of changing his brand from hippie/surfer romantic lead to a character actor of ruthless precision and subtlety. His scene-stealing supporting roles in 2012’s Killer Joe and The Paperboy, not to mention 2013’s Mud (discussed above), are critically noteworthy as it is; the Dallas Buyers Club performance feels almost like an apotheosis of these other challenging roles, in which McConaughey brings that same magnetic quality to a front-and-center lead role with seeming ease.

It’s McConaughey’s award to win, but I suppose it’s also possible that Bruce Dern could pull a career-capping upset for Nebraska. Dern’s performance is certainly worthy of accolades and a nomination, but pit against McConaughey, I think the latter “did the most work,” so to speak. Ejiofor is a contender, and I think his performance is one of the most interesting things about 12 Years a Slave which, as you sort of said above, suffers overall from being fairly standard or expected in the portrayal of its subject matter (though I think some would argue that it’s the very straightforward style that makes the agony of Solomon Northrup all the more impactful). As for Bale, I feel like he gave a similar style of performance for O. Russell in The Fighter, but whereas Bale brought a stunning kineticsm to his portrayal of down-and-out boxer Dicky Eklund, his Jerseyite con artist in American Hustle seems almost weary. For being the film’s protagonist, he’s the least memorable actor on screen.

I also wish that Joaquin Phoenix and Tom Hanks had been on this list for Her and Captain Phillips, respectively. Phoenix’s performance, most of it spent talking to a disembodied voice, is the engine that drives all of Her’s artistic achievement; with a different actor, the enterprise might have fallen flat. Tom Hanks actually has the distinction of my most memorable “lead actor” moment of the year — everything from the final moments of his rescue through his unfolding, debilitating shock in the military medical bay is the actor showing his dramatic skills at their most deeply felt — and Captain Phillips itself is noteworthy for being an action-drama steeped in current events, but features a relatively ordinary group of people thrown into very real danger. Because of this, it has a lot more emotional weight than slick Hollywood shoot-em-ups of its ilk.

BEST ACTRESS

Amy Adams, American Hustle

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Sandra Bullock, Gravity

Judi Dench, Philomena

Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

MP: Of my three favorite female performances this year, only one is on the list of nominees. Blue Jasmine wasn’t one of my most beloved movies of the year, though its topical class-war riff on A Streetcar Named Desire is competently rendered. That said, Blanchett’s lead performance is one of those you can’t take your eyes off of, even when Jasmine is at her most despicable or self loathing. Blanchett infuses what could have been a caricature of an unstable Park Avenue princess with grit and humor. Jasmine bemoans her disenfranchised life (practically penniless after the dissolution of her marriage to a corrupt financier) and makes cringeworthy dig after dig about her new, lower-middle-class situation, but when confronted with reality, she makes active choices to better herself: taking computer classes, finding and holding down a job. Even as she embarks on a deceptive quest to remarry and reclaim her former luxury, you can’t help but admire her determination, and the inkling of backbone she shows when truly cornered. An effective movie elevated and made worth watching by a command performance.

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Runner-up: Greta Gerwig’s title role in Noah Baumbach’s Frances Ha was one of my biggest surprises of the year. Gerwig has given interesting performances before, but her unique, self-effacing presence and body language shine as Frances, a role that allows Gerwig to show off dimensions to her acting skills that maybe weren’t evident before. Frances is a lost soul who still retains a dim sense of her own purpose, a lackadaisical Millennial aware of and hemmed in by her own torpor and sense of stagnation. She pushes tentatively at the situations she gets herself into, testing her own self possession and how others perceive her, and then flares into with indignation when this strategy crashes her headlong into emotional brick walls. It’s the opposite of Lena Dunham’s Girls: On that show, Dunham and her writing staff seem to care very little about whether or not their twentysomething young women struggling in New York are sympathetic or not, but Gerwig, who co-wrote Frances Ha with Baumbach, goes to great lengths in both the script and her performance to make Frances likeable, the kind of person who you root for even as you cringe at her missteps. A naturalistic performance that also possess the nuance of character work, and not one to be missed.

Honorable mention: Amy Acker as Beatrice in Joss Whedon’s black-and-white contemporary take on Much Ado About Nothing. Beatrice has been given life across the centuries by countless actresses on stage and screen, but Acker — a perennial Whedon cast member — brings something special to the role. Perhaps it’s Whedon’s recasting of the Italian family/nobility dramedy as a modern Mafiosi analogue; Beatrice and her cousin Hero are viewed as little more than bargaining chips by the powerful men who surround and subsidize them, and Whedon treats this dynamic with a sinister perspective.

Throughout the film, we watch as Beatrice gently but forcefully disentangles herself from the advancement of multiple men, only to find herself brought up short by their deceit and their misogyny when her innocent cousin becomes the target of vicious slander. This makes the film’s conflicts strongly echo contemporary concerns about the equality and agency of women, particularly in America. But all of Whedon’s clever contextualizing would have been for naught if his Beatrice hadn’t been up to the task of capturing and projecting these ideas. Not to worry: Acker storms through her motor-mouthed scenes with the same talky aplomb as Julia Roberts in August: Osage County, and while she perfectly embodies Beatrice’s vicious wit and vindictive streak, it’s the vivacious quality of Acker’s take on the role that give Beatrice an intriguing new dimension. Here is a woman with a zest for life, but so jaded and entrapped by the men around her she emotionally resembles a bird fluttering in the eaves, searching for an exit and finding none. Deeply impressive.

The other nominees are deserving roles and deserving actresses, but none strike me as particularly special. Amy Adams has good moments in American Hustle but, much like her co-stars and the film itself, suffers from inconsistency and strange tonal shifts. Meryl Streep pops pills with gusto and her performance is mostly faultless, but one almost wishes that she would have been less broad or less mannered at times; her performance almost feels like we should be watching it on stage instead of from the close psychic distance of a movie camera.

SM: We really should be disagreeing more, so I’ll give it my best here. I don’t necessarily think anything you’ve said above is wrong, but I do have some different takes. This year’s best actress race is perhaps one of the least interesting of the field. This is partly because all five actresses have a been-there-done-that quality to them. All five have been nominated multiple times, and everyone on the list, except Amy Adams, has won before. That’s not to say these are unworthy performances or actresses, but there’s no one fresh or thrilling to get behind.

Like you, some of my favorite performances of the year did not make the cut. Though I didn’t love Saving Mr. Banks, I thought Emma Thompson gave one of her best performances ever as the snobbish Mary Poppins author. She’s the best part of the film, bringing both humor and heart to the story. I thought she had a nomination in the bag. I also agree with you that seeing Greta Gerwig on this list for Frances Ha would have been fantastic. Gerwig is the kind actress that would have freshened up this list. She captures something so real and natural in that film that it feels very in the moment, but also like something we will look back on with admiration. Lastly, I would have loved to see Julia Louis-Dreyfus on this list for Enough Said, which was one of the most surprising films of the year. She plays a divorced mother who falls in love with her new friend’s ex-husband with just the right balance of humor and heart. The film is so rare in the fact that is really captures middle-aged people on the dating scene in a way that felt genuine. It earned her a Golden Globe nomination — but was worthy of an Oscar nomination.

But this year’s award seems to be Cate Blanchett’s, and I’m fairly okay with that. I’ve always been a big fan of Blanchett, and she is great in Blue Jasmine. I’m sucker for those performances that make you feel awkward or make you want to turn away from the screen. She truly delivers. But, like you, the film isn’t my favorite. Streep is her normal amazing self in August: Osage County, but has no real chance of grabbing this award. Sandra Bullock does the best she can with her terrified astronaut role in Gravity, but that isn’t an acting film. In fairness, Bullock holds her own, and with a different actress, the movie probably would have been terrible, so I give her credit — but not an Oscar. Dench suffers from the Streep-factor. They are both such accomplished actresses that they really have to pull it out of the bag to get an award (nominations, no problem). This isn’t Dench’s year. That leaves Amy Adams, who actually has the greatest shot of stealing this from Blanchett, and I kind of hope she does.

As I mentioned before, Adams is the only one who hasn’t won an Oscar on this list, and this is her fifth nomination since 2006 (pretty impressive). I truly liked her performance in American Hustle, but, as we know, Oscars aren’t always given out just for the role. Adams has earned an Oscar for her great work in film after film, including this year’s Her. If anyone can ruin Blanchett’s night, it is Adams.

BEST PICTURE

Gravity

Nebraska

Captain Phillips

American Hustle

Philomena

12 Years a Slave

Dallas Buyers Club

Her

The Wolf of Wall Street

SM: This year’s battle for Best Picture hasn’t been easy. For a short time, it seemed nothing could beat 12 Years a Slave, but both Gravity and American Hustle have given it a run for its money, and the winner could really be a surprise come Sunday night. But before I dive into the likelihood of any of those three winning, let me tell you which film should win.

For me, a Best Picture is not only a great a film, but also a film that says something significant about this particular time period or this particular period of filmmaking. Don’t get me wrong — that doesn’t mean the film needs to be set in contemporary times, but I do think it should engage with the current culture in a powerful way. This is what left me troubled about 12 Years a Slave; it doesn’t do that. A film that does is Her. On paper, it sounds terrible. A movie about a man in the near future who falls in love with a Siri-like computer operating system seems like it could be ridiculous or just plain stupid, but Her is none of those things. It’s actually a thoughtful exploration of loneliness and connection in our modern world. Joaquin Phoenix gives a fantastic performance, as does Scarlett Johansson, who only “appears” in the film as a voice. It’s hands down the most creative and original film on this list of contenders, and it would be refreshing if a film like this could win Best Picture. It’s not flashy or violent or historical. It’s about a world that feels just around the corner. But I know it will not be taking home the little gold man on Sunday, even if I wish that could and truly believe that it deserves it over these other more in-your-face Best Picture front-runners.

As mentioned before, the race seems to be narrowed down to Gravity, American Hustle, and 12 Years a Slave. The other contenders don’t have enough momentum to have any real shot at gold, and a few didn’t deserve the nomination (I’m looking at you Wolf of Wall Street). I could honestly see any one of these winning, but I’m placing my bets on American Hustle. Here’s why:

Gravity is visual eye-candy. It was fun and terrifying to see in the theater in 3D. It’s been a crowd-pleaser, but I think it’s best shot is in the directing category, not in Best Picture. I expect to see Alfonso Cuaron take home the Best Director award. I was, however, surprised to see Entertainment Weekly predicting Gravity as the Best Picture winner, so don’t completely count it out. I also don’t personally find it worthy of winning Best Picture. It’s not a film that has all the elements. Its story is flat, there are believability issues throughout, and it’s not a film I ever care to watch again.

Again, I’m not a big fan of 12 Years a Slave — mostly because it doesn’t seem to have a clear direction or purpose. It’s very straightforward storytelling. The story is terrible and highlights a horrible time period in American history, but I’m not sure what I’m supposed to take away from the film. It didn’t add to my understanding of our complicated race history or our connection to slavery. Many of the performances were one-note, and the characters were often underdeveloped. Everything seemed to be so clear-cut: innocent man forced into slavery and evil plantation owner. It was very good vs. evil without much depth or complexity.

This leaves American Hustle, which is the film I liked the best of these three top contenders and, the film that I think will take home the statue. American Hustle is a fun movie that has gained momentum over the last few months. It’s entertaining, well-acted, and a bit over the top. That’s not to say it is the most deserving (as I said, Her is my Best Picture pick), but it has a good shot. If it wins, it will probably be a Best Picture people regret later. I’m not sure it has any real staying power, but if I were a betting man, I’d bet on this horse.

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MP: There is definitely a contrast here for me regarding “what should win” vs. “what will win” (which is the point of writing articles like this, I suppose). From that list, I would personally love to see Her receive recognition. Of all the nominees, it’s the most carefully and effectively crafted movie, and I’m in total agreement that it speaks to something very contemporary and unexplored going on in our own culture. It also manages to be a science fiction film that doesn’t use traditional science fiction plots; at the same time, it manages to be a romantic comedy that deftly sidesteps the pitfalls that plague that genre, too.

In both senses, Her tests the limits of what its dual genres can achieve and, in doing so, becomes a memorable and unique film. We also have to tip our hats to Spike Jonze’s lush direction. His vision of our near future is sleek and beautiful as opposed to the garish dystopias we’ve come to expect; the dystopia, instead, is in the human race’s emotional equilibrium and capacity for connection with others. Cleverly done.

Despite all that, I’m under no illusions that Her has a chance. It’s too “weird” for what comprises the mainstream block of Academy voters. 12 Years a Slave, Philomena, Nebraska, and Captain Phillips are all solid films, but lack the “something special” of Her. My next choice down personally would be Dallas Buyers Club, but I think that it will probably wind up being American Hustle. Much as it pains me to say it: Hustle is actually one of my least favorite movies on the list (excepting Gravity and Wolf of Wall Street). To me, it was poorly-paced and often contradictory in its tone, often feeling like a potentially-good movie wrapped inside a less-good one.

There are definitely some other titles that I would have liked to see touted — I was particularly partial to Mud and Prisoners as overall cinematic experiences whose various factors combine to deliver memorable, affecting filmmaking — but the only snub that really gets to me is Joseph Gordon-Levitt’s excellent Don Jon. Its exploration of porn, sex, love, and gender from the perspective of Gordon-Levitt’s Jersey dude-bro is funny but much more complex and psychologically astute than its trailers would have you believe. It was absolutely one of my favorites of the year, and extremely relevant to our culture’s seeming inability to navigate the tricky waters that make up the frontier between sex and porn; of course, this is also probably why the film didn’t get any Oscar attention, much less a deserved nod for Gordon-Levitt’s original screenplay and direction. Too naughty for the Academy, possibly?

These are our picks for Hollywood’s big night. Tune in Sunday to see if our predictions hold true.

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