While it feels as though Oscar season is far away, studios begin ramping up their campaigns for awards around this time each year. The buzz has already begun and the excitement is starting to build. Already, betting sites are laying odds on what films from this year we’re likely to hear more about come nomination season, which officially opens for voting on January 2, 2020 and ends on January 13 with the announcements. Even though we’re still four months away from the ceremony, which takes place on February 9 on ABC, there are a few films that you can expect you’ll be hearing a lot about in the lead up to the big day.
Once Upon A Time in Hollywood
Quentin Tarantino’s ninth filmed received rave reviews from audiences and critics and the Academy does tend to favor his work. The auteur has already received 3 Oscars—two for writing for Pulp Fiction and Inglorious Basterds, and one for directing for Pulp Fiction—but, so far, the big one, Best Picture, has eluded him. Given the star power of and acclaim for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, the odds seem pretty certain that we’ll see nominations for writing, directing, actor, supporting actor, and picture.
Joker
While critical reception for Todd Phillips’ reimagining of the origin story for the Clown Prince of Crime has been somewhat mixed, the one thing that most critics have agreed on is the raw power of Joaquin Phoenix’s performance. Ever since its debut at the Venice Film Festival, where Joker took home the coveted Golden Lion, Phoenix has received nothing but raves for his nuanced performance of a disturbed man’s descent into madness. While it seems unlikely it will walk home with a Best Picture nomination, Phoenix feels like a shoe-in for an acting nod.
The Irishman
Can Netflix do it? They were arguably robbed of the Best Picture award last year for Roma thanks, in part, to the old guard’s dissent against the streaming service’s inclusion in the ceremony. Still, that film did manage to take home 3 awards—directing and cinematography for Alfonso Cuaron and Best Foreign Language Film—even if it missed the big one. With Martin Scorsese returning to the world of the mafioso he made famous with Goodfellas and Casino, it seems more than likely that we’ll find Netflix once again a contender for Best Picture. You can also expect it to receive some nods for directing, writing, and maybe even one or two acting nominations for Robert DeNiro, Al Pacino, or Joe Pesci.
The Farewell
Every year features a few dark horse candidates for Best Picture and this year feels like a safe bet for writer/director Lulu Wang’s poignant tale of culture and family, The Farwell. The Academy does love its small films about family and there hasn’t been one of those this good in some time. Don’t be surprised, also, to see star Awkwafina among the list of candidates for Best Actress or even Shuzhen Zhao for Best Supporting Actress.
Parasite
The buzz for Korean director Bong-Joon Ho’s darkly comedic thriller has been growing for months. At first it felt like a shoe-in for Best Foreign Language Film but, with each festival and each opening, it feels more and more likely that he’ll be able to pull a Roma and get in for Best Picture as well. And given the visionary director’s history as a filmmaker, you shouldn’t be surprised to see a nod for directing as well.
Richard Jewell
Say what you will about Clint Eastwood, as a director he can, on occasion, really bring it. While it’s been a while since we’ve been reminded how great a filmmaker he can be, early buzz for Richard Jewell, which follows the true story of a security guard wrongly blamed for the bombings of the Atlanta Olympic Games, seems to suggest that he’s back in top form. A Best Picture and Best Director nod seems likely, as does a Best Adapted Screenplay for writer Billy Ray.
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
It’s been a quarter of a century since Tom Hanks won back-to-back Best Actor awards (Philadelphia in 1994, Forrest Gump in 1995) and, almost 20 since he received his last nomination (in 2001, for Cast Away). Will this be the year that he gets his third statue? Given the hype surrounding his portrayal of Fred Rogers in A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, it seems likely. You can also expect the film to be considered heavily for Best Picture and Best Director for Marielle Heller whose last film, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, took home three nominations earlier this year.
1917
The Academy’s history with sweeping war epics is pretty solid and there hasn’t been one this ambitious for years. Director Sam Mendes, who previously won Best Director in 2000 for American Beauty, has made what might be the most ambitious war film in decades with 1917. Filmed and edited to look like it was made in a single shot, the film is said to be remarkable in scope and full of impressive performances. You can bet you’ll be hearing the name Sam Mendes a lot in the lead up to Oscar night, and don’t be surprised when 1917 takes home a pile of nominations—if not awards.
Judy
Like Joker, Judy feels destined to miss out and many of the bigger awards, including Best Picture, but it’s star, Renee Zellweger, will no doubt be a prime candidate for Best Actress for her moving and nuanced portrayal of Judy Garland. I also wouldn’t be shocked to see cinematographer Ole Bratt Birkeland get the nod for the film’s remarkable look and feel.
Marriage Story
Noah Baumbach has long been one of the industry’s most intriguing maker of small, intimate films and, by all accounts, Marriage Story is his best yet. A nominee for the Golden Lion at Venice Film Festival, you can bet that Netflix will be making a big push to get this film seen and nominated for Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Screenplay, as well as Best Actor and Best Actress for stars Adam Driver and Scarlett Johansson. Whether or not this can overcome the Netflix hurdle remains to be seen, however, but more likely than not we’ll be hearing Marriage Story’s title said a few times when nominations are finally announced.
