Oscar night is finally upon us. Though the run up to this year’s celebration of cinematic achievement has been beset by hard times—from the controversy surrounding the host, to the sexual abuse scandal regarding Bryan Singer who directed Best Picture nominee Bohemian Rhapsody, to the bizarre back and forth regarding categories that would not be televised the night of—it’s still an important night meant to honor the best that film had to offer the previous year. Even with the Academy’s missteps and false starts that have punctuated the weeks leading up to the event, there are still some great films up for awards this year with plenty of opportunities for some shocking upsets along the way. While we can’t know what the night will bring until it’s upon us, we took a look back at the nominees to the weight the likelihood of winning for all the major categories.
Best Picture:
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice
What I hope will win: In my wildest fantasies, I hope Black Panther walks away with the statue come Sunday. Ryan Coogler brought an elevated since of style and agency not just to the genre of superhero movies but to the MCU, which has threatened to go stale for years with its cookie cutter plots and villains. Black Panther was a Shakespearean epic of a story that will resonate for generations.
What will probably win: Roma has been the movie to beat throughout this award season, and it’s definitely got the momentum going into the broadcast. Then again, so do The Favourite and Bohemian Rhapsody. Given the sexual abuse scandal surrounding Bohemian Rhapsody director Bryan Singer, I would be shocked if it the Academy deemed it the champion. The question is: will they reward a movie released by Netflix? Roma was a great film, and no doubt the Academy recognizes that.
Lead Actor:
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
What I hope will win: Christian Bale didn’t play Dick Cheney so much as become him. He gave a mesmerizing performance that deserves study and acclaim. To my mind, there was no better performance this year.
What will probably win: This is a three-way competition between Bale, Dafoe, and Malek. If any of these men win, justice will be served. However, there are some things to take into consideration. First, Dafoe has never won an Oscar. Second, Bale has (Supporting Actor for The Fighter in 2011). Third, Malek is young. Given that Bale already has an Oscar and his shelf and that Malek will no doubt continue to turn out performances as good as his performance as Freddie Mercury, it seems likely that this will be Dafoe’s year.
Lead Actress:
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
What I hope will win: Colman’s performance as Queen Ann was one of the most hilarious and intricate performances of 2018. It’s not often that an actor can play pathos with hilarity, but she found the balance and made one of the most memorable roles in recent memory.
What will probably win: Glenn Close has never won an Oscar. There might as well be no one else in this competition. Thankfully, her performance in The Wife was one of the most nuanced and memorable of her career. She’ll absolutely deserved it when she puts that statue on her shelf.
Supporting Actor:
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice
What I hope will win: Richard E. Grant gave a captivating performance as Jack Hock in Can You Ever Forgive Me? Every moment he was on screen was mesmerizing and wonderful.
What will probably win: More than any other category, Supporting Actor feels wide open. Any one of these nominees might win on strength of their performance or for their body of work overall. I suspect Driver might have a bit of an edge here, but this one is too close to call.
Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams, Vice
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
What I hope will win: Honestly? Every single one of these nominees is more than deserving of this award. I kind of wish they all could win
What will probably win: De Tavira gave a powerhouse performance in Roma and I suspect it will be sweeping or almost sweeping the entire night.
Director:
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Adam McKay, Vice
What I hope will win: Spike Lee has never won an Oscar for a film; sure, he got the honorary stature in 2016, which does right a few wrongs the Academy has made over the year, but he deserves to take home an award for his work.
What will probably win: This year comes down to Lee or Cuarón. Cuarón certainly has momentum going into the night, and is probably the clear frontrunner, but given that he’s also previous won a Best Director statue, it’s possible the Academy will look to someone else. As much as anyone in this lineup deserves a win, barring Cuarón, Lee is the only real choice.
Animated Feature:
Incredibles 2, Brad Bird
Isle of Dogs, Wes Anderson
Mirai, Mamoru Hosoda
Ralph Breaks the Internet, Rich Moore, Phil Johnston
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman
What I hope will win: Anything but Incredibles 2 or Ralph Breaks the Internet. Mirai? Beautiful and moving. Isle of Dogs? Moving and emotional. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse? Magical in ways Spider-Man hasn’t been in years. Any of them should win.
What will probably win: I mean it’s not like I think Incredibles 2 or Ralph Breaks the Internet are bad movies or don’t deserve to win—I don’t, and they do—it’s just I’m so tired of Disney or Pixar always winning this award. There are so many other great animated movies released every year and SOMEHOW Disney and Pixar always seem to win. They’ll probably do it this year, too. Sigh.
Adapted Screenplay:
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Joel Coen , Ethan Coen
BlacKkKlansman, Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
If Beale Street Could Talk, Barry Jenkins
A Star Is Born, Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters
What I hope will win: Barry Jenkins did what I thought was impossible when he adapted James Baldwin. I previously thought Baldwin’s work would be too difficult to capture on the screen without losing the majesty, poetry, love, and rage that burns through his every word. Jenkins took a big risk when we took this project on following his Moonlight success, and it paid off.
What will probably win: If Beale Street Could Talk is sorely underrepresented at this year’s awards. I would bet that they reward it where they can.
Original Screenplay:
The Favourite, Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
First Reformed, Paul Schrader
“Green Book,” Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly
“Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón
“Vice,” Adam McKay
What I hope will win: It’s a rare talent that can take a period movie and make it something unique and special, which is exactly what David and McNamara did with The Favourite. It’s one of the smartest, funniest, and most entertaining films of last year mostly because of their handling of the story. No one is more deserving that they.
What will probably win: We can’t deny the power Roma has going into the night. Cuarón created a heartfelt movie on every level and his script is as stunning as any ever written. Since I suspect they’ll give Best Director to Spike Lee, I’m willing to bet they’ll reward Cuarón with this statue instead.
Cinematography:
Cold War, Lukasz Zal
The Favourite, Robbie Ryan
Never Look Away, Caleb Deschanel
Roma, Alfonso Cuarón
A Star Is Born, Matthew Libatique
What I hope will win: Zal and Ryan each created mesmerizing looking films for their work on Cold War and The Favorite, respectively. Each of them are big parts of why both of those movies were so captivating and remarkable, and either of them deserves the award.
What will probably win: This is another category you can expect will be entirely Cuarón’s. Roma all the way.
Best Documentary Feature:
Free Solo, Jimmy Chin, Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi
Hale County This Morning, This Evening, RaMell Ross
Minding the Gap, Bing Liu
Of Fathers and Sons, Talal Derki
RBG, Betsy West, Julie Cohen
What I hope will win: Bing Liu’s look at skateboarding took some devastatingly human turns in ways most documentaries never even approach, making Minding the Gap one of the best and most memorable documentaries to come out in years.
What will probably win: This is another category that feels too close to call. I can imagine any of these five titles being uttered when the envelope is open. I suspect that RBG probably has a slight edge—as much to honor the Supreme Court justice herself as the movie—but this one will be a surprise no matter what happens.
Best Foreign Language Film:
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland)
Never Look Away (Germany)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)
What I hope will win: Cold War was a remarkable look at love in the Soviet Union, telling a beautifully human, tragic tale that will haunt and move you for long after you’re done watching it.
What will probably win: The big question here is Roma. Will it win for Best Picture, Best Foreign Language Film, or both? I suspect it’s down to Roma and Cold War, though a win here for Roma could lessen its chances for taking hope the prize for Best Picture.
Original Score:
BlacKkKlansman, Terence Blanchard
Black Panther, Ludwig Goransson
If Beale Street Could Talk, Nicholas Britell
Isle of Dogs, Alexandre Desplat
Mary Poppins Returns, Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman
What I hope will win: Britell composed one of the most haunting, beautiful, and memorable scores in years with his work on If Beale Street Could Talk, synthesizing both the classic jazz soul of Harlem with a golden age feel. It’s a work that stands on its on as an entire album, not just the accompaniment to a film.
What will probably win: It’s going to come down between Britell and Desplat. This is the tenth time Desplat’s been nominated for an Oscar, with two wins already under his belt (The Grand Budapest Hotel in 2015 and last year’s The Shape of Water). Britell, meanwhile, has only had two nominations including this one (having previously been nominated for Moonlight in 2017). I suspect they’ll give this one to Britell, but don’t be surprised when either name is read.
Original Song:
“All The Stars” from Black Panther by Kendrick Lamar, SZA
“I’ll Fight” from RBG by Diane Warren, Jennifer Hudson
“The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns by Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman
“Shallow” from A Star Is Born by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt and Benjamin Rice
“When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings” from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs by David Rawlings and Gillian Welch
What I hope will win: “All the Stars” did what so few Oscar nominated songs are capable: exist as a unique work even outside the context of its movie. It’s a stunning mix of modern hip hop and R&B and one of the hottest tracks Kendrick Lamar—no stranger to hot tracks—has yet produced.
What will probably win: “Shallow” has the full force of the hype train behind it and appears to be rocketing towards the only award for A Star Is Born.
The 91st Annual Academy Awards air Sunday night, February 24, at 8pm EST on ABC.
